« References

Sam Thomas Davies, Super Thinking.

Sam Thomas Davies, “Super Thinking by Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann,” Sam Thomas Davies (blog), accessed January 25, 2025, https://www.samuelthomasdavies.com/book-summaries/psychology/super-thinking/.

Reading notes.

This book mostly sounds like a compilation of notes from Thinking in Systems, Essentialism, Your Brain at Work, and Liminal Thinking.

Being wrong less:

Thinking things through from first principles is the best way to be wrong less and to learn new things rapidly. First principles are assumptions that need to be tested in the real world. Use Ockham’s Razor to strip away any unnecessary dependencies.

Traps:

  • Framing: Stuck in one frame of reference. Consider other frames when an idea is presented.
  • Nudging: Influenced by specific words or other cues, unrelated to the idea itself
  • Anchoring: Over-reliance on first impression
  • Availability bias: Distortions of objectivity/model of the big picture created by overvaluing recent information

To be wrong less about other people, imagine the situation from an impartial observer’s standpoint. Similarly, try to get into an understanding where you can represent the other PoV.

Most Respectful Interpretation MRI is giving benefit of the doubt, choosing to interpret something as favorably as possible.

Hanlon’s Razor suggests carelessness creates negative experience more than malice.

Fundamental Attribution Error is the interpretation that others’ behaviors come from their fundamental motivation rather than external factors. The above strategies help mediate this.

Veil of ignorance: pretending our perspective doesn’t exist when considering how society should be organized

Confirmation bias: using new information to reaffirm existing beliefs.

Backfire effect: tendency to dig into an incorrect position when presented with contrary evidence.

Disconfirmation bias: holding new information to unreasonably high standards that existing beliefs don’t have to clear

Cognitive dissonance: Discomfort cause by possessing two contradictory ideas at the same time. Reinforcement mechanism for confirmation bias.

Real trick to being wrong less: work to accept new information, paradigms.

Models to help do that:

  • Thinking gray: Get out of black and white thinking, it doesn’t work
  • Devil’s advocate: Write out opposing rationale. Include opposition when making decisions.
    • Helps reduce Optimistic Probability Bias, confusing desire for something to be true with the likelihood it is